SongMonk wrote this entry about getting his second hold'em royal flush in less than two months. Quite a run!

This is hard for even me to believe, but I have never hit a royal flush in hold'em. I've been playing hold'em since 1995. After I ran some numbers, I'm also surprised that I've only played about 30,000-45,000 hands of hold'em.

A royal flush in holdem is expected to occur once every 30,940 hands, which means that I'm not a total aberration, although I am expected to have seen one so far.

Want to estimate how many royal flushes you should have received by now? Playing in an average cardroom or home game where you get about 35 hands per hour, you should see one royal flush every 884 hours of poker.

In the post about SongMonk's first royal flush, tall_man compared a hole-in-one in golf to a royal flush in 5 cards (1 in 649,470). That sounded high to me. In fact, according to this article in Golf Today Magazine, the odds of a hole in one are between 1 in 20,000 and 1 in 33,000. While these odds are much more dependent on skill than the pure chance of getting dealt a royal flush in poker, you can see that the odds of getting a hole-in-one are roughly equivalent to getting a royal flush in hold'em.

The irony here is that I've played 30,000-45,000 hands of hold'em and have never hit a royal flush, whereas I've played maybe two dozen rounds of golf in my life and got a hole-in-one the second time I ever played.

Yeah but you were playing mini golf!

Posted by: neil on August 7, 2003 02:23 PM

Yeah, I hit it right through the windmill and into the clown's mouth.

Actually it was on the Wembley golf course in Perth, Western Australia... in fairness, it was a downhill 150-yard par 3, but hey, a hole-in-one is a hole-in-one!

Posted by: jeremy on August 7, 2003 03:28 PM

Best I've done is a straight flush to the king. It did win me a small jackpot at UltimateBet.com, though :-)

Posted by: CJ on August 7, 2003 04:22 PM

Made my only Royal Flush this wk. in holdem. Ace ten hearts,flop 8,J,Q hearts;turn off 8;river K hearts. Got call and raise turn; one call river.

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